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# Samsung is expected to more than double output of its HBM4 and HBM4E DRAM

536 points · 411 comments

[Full discussion](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778029>)

[Read original](<https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/09/20/samsung-to-double-hbm4-output-next-year-sources-say>)

Category: [Infrastructure & Efficiency](<https://hacksnap.live/?category=infrastructure-efficiency>)

## Skept-o-meter & Hotness

Skept\-o\-meter: Low\. Estimated from 10 comments\.

13 comments for the summary\.

Peak rank: \#2

Time in Top 10: 24\.0 hours

Hacksnap ranks recent stories first, then orders each group by points\. Peak rank uses all retained observations\. Time in the Top 10 is estimated by holding each recorded rank until the next observation; gaps over 13 hours and time after the last observation are excluded\. Movement between observations is unknown\.

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The article's glass\-carrier signal points to a substantial Samsung HBM4/HBM4E ramp, but the discussion is dominated by downstream concerns: tighter consumer DRAM supply, debate over market versus intervention, and unresolved questions about HBM's role in consumer devices and the durability of AI demand\.

## The brief

Samsung is expected to more than double HBM4\-family output next year, including HBM4 and HBM4E, based on plans to raise outsourced glass\-carrier cleaning to 50,000 sheets per month from 20,000 this year\. The article ties that increase to 12\-layer\-and\-higher stacks, Samsung's February HBM4 mass\-production shipments using 1c DRAM and a 4nm base die, May HBM4E samples to customers including Nvidia, and industry projections of about 250,000 monthly HBM wafer inputs next year versus roughly 180,000 this year\.

- Samsung is expected to more than double HBM4 and HBM4E output next year, with glass\-carrier cleaning volume rising to 50,000 sheets per month from 20,000 this year and 10,000 last year\.
- Glass carriers hold HBM DRAM wafers during thinning and drilling, preventing bending or cracking; they become more important as stack counts rise, and Samsung's HBM4/HBM4E plans center on 12\-layer and higher stacks\.
- Samsung began mass\-production shipments of HBM4 in February using 10\-nanometer\-class 1c DRAM and a 4\-nanometer base die\.
- In May, Samsung provided 12\-layer HBM4E samples to customers including Nvidia\.
- Industry expects Samsung's HBM production scale to grow nearly 40% to about 250,000 wafers per month next year from roughly 180,000 this year\.
- The HBM4 family is projected to rise from around 40% of Samsung's HBM shipment mix this year to about 80% next year as HBM4E mass production ramps up\.

## Discussion themes

### HBM ramp may worsen consumer DRAM prices

Commenters worry that capacity is shifting toward data\-center HBM and away from DDR4/DDR5, with no new fabs being built, so more HBM output could tighten consumer DRAM supply and raise prices\. One reply questions why more RAM supply would lead to higher consumer prices\.

Sources: [Comment 49778443](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778443>) · [Comment 49778644](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778644>) · [Comment 49778531](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778531>) · [Comment 49778516](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778516>)

### Market operation versus abuse

There is disagreement over whether the price surge is ordinary supply and demand or an abuse requiring government action\. One side calls it proper market operation; another asks whether limits are warranted when one industry consumes a resource other consumers need\.

Sources: [Comment 49778574](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778574>) · [Comment 49778650](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778650>) · [Comment 49778531](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778531>)

### No single government has effective levers

A commenter argues that demand is global and no single government can meaningfully influence it without protectionism: the U\.S\. lacks overnight fab capacity, South Korea and Taiwan lack U\.S\.\-scale demand, and China lacks comparable IP\.

Sources: [Comment 49778589](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778589>)

### HBM as consumer memory faces practical tradeoffs

On using HBM instead of DRAM as primary consumer memory, commenters note CPU vendor choices are the main blocker, Mac laptops already use it, and fixed RAM with the CPU may be acceptable\. Others say LPDDR's lower idle power may be preferred in battery devices, and current prices prevent testing the tradeoff\.

Sources: [Comment 49778660](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778660>) · [Comment 49778744](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778744>) · [Comment 49778794](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778794>)

### AI demand durability is disputed

One commenter expects the HBM buildout to arrive just as AI runs well on consumer hardware and data\-center demand collapses\. Another rejects that, saying frontier models will keep advancing beyond what a desktop can run\.

Sources: [Comment 49778676](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778676>) · [Comment 49778840](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778840>)

### Will supply satisfy AI demand?

A commenter asks whether the planned expansion will be enough for AI's hunger\.

Sources: [Comment 49778447](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49778447>)

## Sources & coverage

AI-generated summary · 2026\-09\-20T20:01:25\.258807\+00:00

Based on 13 of 13 usable stored comments, selected by depth and branch activity. This is a sample of the discussion. Article text may also be shortened.

Generated using deepseek\-ai/DeepSeek\-V4\.1\-Flash. Check the linked sources for full context.