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# Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026

205 points · 245 comments

[Full discussion](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49920932>)

[Read original](<https://www.techpowerup.com/353296/micron-ceo-says-memory-supply-will-be-much-tighter-in-2027-and-2028-than-in-2026>)

Category: [Infrastructure & Efficiency](<https://hacksnap.live/?category=infrastructure-efficiency>)

## Skept-o-meter & Hotness

Skept\-o\-meter: High\. Estimated from 10 comments\.

29 comments for the summary\.

Peak rank: \#4

Time in Top 10: 24\.0 hours

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Micron's CEO expects memory supply to stay tight through 2028, but the forecast comes from a seller that benefits from scarcity and rests on AI demand that may prove speculative\.

## The brief

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told the company's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call that memory and storage supply will likely be much tighter in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026\. Micron reported record quarterly revenue of $54\.2 billion and said more than 75% of its 2027 output is already committed\. Even with additional DRAM cleanroom plans and customer upside requests, Mehrotra said Micron has no line of sight to supply\-demand balance; its Idaho ID2 fab is not expected to start wafer output until late 2028\. DRAM prices rose in the high\-teens percent range last quarter and NAND about 30%, though the projections are company estimates and could change\.

- Micron reported record quarterly revenue of $54\.2 billion in fiscal Q4 2026\.
- CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said supply\-demand conditions are expected to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than in 2026\.
- Even with additional industry DRAM cleanroom space and new customer upside requests, Micron has no line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance\.
- In June, the CEO expected industry supply to improve gradually in 2028 but could not predict when supply would catch up with demand\.
- Micron's Idaho ID2 fab is only expected to start wafer output in late 2028\.
- More than 75% of Micron's 2027 output is already committed; DRAM prices rose in the high\-teens percent range and NAND about 30% last quarter\.

## Discussion themes

Analyzed: 2026\-10\-01T18:01:40\.814715\+00:00

Analysis sample: Based on 40 of 40 usable stored comments. Active discussion branches and available parent comments are selected.

This sample may omit parts of the full thread. Selected themes do not measure community opinion or how common a view is.

### Memory supply constraints and slow capacity expansion

Commenters discuss that memory supply is constrained by fab capacity, ASML EUV tool availability, and slow ramp\-up, making it hard to meet demand for years\.

Sources: [Comment 49921253](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921253>) · [Comment 49921287](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921287>) · [Comment 49921810](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921810>) · [Comment 49921857](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921857>) · [Comment 49921959](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921959>)

### Speculative AI demand and risk of excess memory

Commenters argue much memory demand comes from AI labs with uncertain funding, raising the risk of oversupply and a bubble burst in 2027–28\.

Sources: [Comment 49922165](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49922165>) · [Comment 49921919](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921919>) · [Comment 49921773](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921773>) · [Comment 49921510](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921510>) · [Comment 49922454](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49922454>)

### CXMT and new competitors entering the memory market

Commenters hope CXMT or other new suppliers will enter and offset high prices, with some arguing current pricing creates an opening for competition\.

Sources: [Comment 49921267](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921267>) · [Comment 49921441](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921441>) · [Comment 49921904](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921904>) · [Comment 49921548](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921548>) · [Comment 49921739](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921739>)

### Micron's financial health and future viability

Commenters debate whether Micron's profits are strong and whether it could go out of business if AI customers fail\.

Sources: [Comment 49921408](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921408>) · [Comment 49921345](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921345>) · [Comment 49921368](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921368>) · [Comment 49921623](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921623>)

### Fab construction delays and regulatory friction

A commenter argues Micron's own lengthy approval and environmental review process delayed a Syracuse fab, contributing to supply tightness\.

Sources: [Comment 49921753](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921753>)

### High memory prices and software memory efficiency

Commenters note high retail RAM prices and hope for better software memory optimization, while discussing browser RAM usage\.

Sources: [Comment 49921267](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921267>) · [Comment 49921458](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921458>) · [Comment 49921392](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921392>) · [Comment 49921566](<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49921566>)

## Sources & coverage

AI-generated summary · 2026\-10\-01T16:36:34\.740595\+00:00

Based on 29 of 29 usable stored comments, selected by depth and branch activity. This is a sample of the discussion. Article text may also be shortened.

Generated using deepseek\-ai/DeepSeek\-V4\.1\-Flash. Check the linked sources for full context.